AI

[greenfree2002]

It seems to me that all this hype about AI is just a big bubble that will burst in a year or two. We are constantly told that in the near future, AI will reach the level of AGI and start solving (or is already about to solve) the most pressing global problems of mankind — curing cancer, combating global warming, alleviating poverty. Come on, in the past two years, OpenAI has released half a dozen models, each one better than the previous — and they still haven’t solved the problem of models hallucinating. They’re not close to solving it even now, when the model has access to the internet and could potentially check its answers. AGI, my ass.

upd. 28-02-2025
Here is a diagram of effectiveness growth for the 6 recent OpenAI models (roughly for the last 8 months)


Source: OpenAI GPT-4.5 System Card https://cdn.openai.com/gpt-4-5-system-card.pdf

Comments

[dennisgorelik]

> AI is just a big bubble that will burst in a year or two

1) There is a bubble around AI.
2) This AI bubble may or may not burst.
3) AI improvements are very big and very real.

> AI will reach the level of AGI

AI already reached the level of AGI.
The best AI models now carry general intelligence, and easily outperform people on most intelligence metrics.

Very deep reasoning in AI models is still a bit weak, so AGI did not outperform people in everything as of yet.

It takes some time to apply new AI technologies to solving real problems.
But it already happens.

I already use perplexity.ai instead of Google.

My job board (postjobfree.com) generates job search alert search queries, using OpenAI Chat Completions API -- with a better quality than our previous algorithms based on our custom code.

[gingeriana]

То же самое писали и про биткоин, и про крипту лет чуть не десять назад
Это всё безобразие не захватило мир и не забрало работы -- но и бабл не лопнул же. Оно просто есть.
От(раз-)влекает население) Некоторые успевают подзаработать, остальные нет. Впрочем, как и со всем остальным.

[greenfree2002]

Ну это же очень разные вещи. Биткойн майнили частные лица за свои деньги. Они могли оказаться по итогу в плюсе или минусе, но это было частное дело. А тут вливаются огромные деньги, в том числе и государственные, в надежде на прорывные результаты. Конечно, оно не лопнет в том смысле, что ничего от него не останется, но оно сильно сдуется. Будет просто развлекать население.